High Variance Structures

"Learn to fail with pride — and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error — by mastering the error part."

- Nassim Taleb

A friend works in a school with two principals; apparently, the two get along famously and the school is extremely well run.  The friend speculated that all schools should have dual principals.  I asked, "What if they did not get along?  What if one or both were incompetent?"

Dual principals is an excellent illustration of what economists call "high variance structures."  If it works out well, dual principals could be better than one principal.  But if it turns out poorly, the school will be much worse off.

In the private sector, good ideas are automatically rewarded.  If a dual-CEO company worked out well, the company would reap the benefits.  If it failed, the company would suffer.  But in the public sector, crappy ideas endure.  Failures do not automatically disappear, especially if they are politically popular.

Attach the term "creative" to anything in education, and it will be accepted.  "Creative" math sounds excellent, why not spread it to the entire curriculum?  Especially if "studies" show that it has better results?  Optimistic education reformers will often picture young, charismatic educators implementing their reforms.  

A good heuristic for education reformers would also to imagine Milton (pictured above) implementing your idea.  Would it be a bit better than the status quo?  Then do it.  But if it would be much worse, avoid it.

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